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Tracking borderline dangerous heat and a strong storm threat Monday

Max heat index values will be in the mid 90s Monday afternoon.
Published: Jul. 5, 2021 at 4:20 AM CDT
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MADISON, Wis. (WMTV) - Good Monday morning! The heat and humidity will continue Monday. Borderline dangerous heat will be possible. Make sure to take heat precautions if you are going to spend a lot of time outside Monday afternoon: drink water, wear sunscreen and find some shade or the A/C from time to time. There will also be a chance for scattered downpours and storms Monday afternoon and evening. If storms develop, a strong storm, or two, cannot be ruled out. It looks like there will be a better chance of rain and storms late Tuesday through Wednesday.

Forecast Heat Index Values Monday 4PM
Forecast Heat Index Values Monday 4PM(WMTV NBC15)
Future Radar Monday 6PM
Future Radar Monday 6PM(WMTV NBC15)

Monday morning is warm and muggy. Temperatures are in the upper 60s and lower 70s across much of the area. Scattered rain showers and storms have developed across northern Iowa and southern Minnesota Monday morning. Much of this rain and storm activity will likely fizzle out before it reaches western Wisconsin. However, there will still be a chance for a rain shower or storm across our western counties.

Monday afternoon will be hot and humid. Highs will be on either side of 90 degrees. The humidity will add a few degrees to the actual air temperature. Max heat indices will be in the lower to mid 90s. Borderline dangerous heat will be possible from 12 p.m. to 8 p.m., so you do not want to over do it outside. Some spots will be cooled off by rain this afternoon and evening. A weak cold front will drop south into the area on Monday. This front will be the focal point for isolated to scattered downpours and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. Not everyone will see rain on Monday, but everyone will have a chance. There are still some question marks with how widespread the rain and storm activity will be Monday afternoon and evening. Monday will also be breezy. Expect a west wind at 15 mph. Wind gusts could be as high as 25 mph.

Temperature Vs Heat Index Forecast - Monday
Temperature Vs Heat Index Forecast - Monday(WMTV NBC15)

If you are going to a state park or boating, make sure to keep an eye on the sky and the radar on Monday. Even through the threat is low, a strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out. Much of southern Wisconsin is under a MARGINAL threat of severer weather on Monday. This is the lowest severe weather threat on our severe weather scale. If a stronger storm develops, it could produce gusty winds, small hail, locally heavy rainfall, and lightning.

Severe Weather Threat Map - Monday
Severe Weather Threat Map - Monday(WMTV NBC15)

Any chance of a rain or a storm will be gone by midnight. The overnight be partly cloudy, warm and muggy. Lows Monday night into Tuesday morning will be on either side of 70s degrees.

Tuesday is looking like another hot and humid day. Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. Much of Tuesday will likely be dry, but rain and storms will start to increase across the northern half of the area late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Places north of Madison will likely have the best chance of rain during this time. If the rain and storms develop earlier than expected or further south Tuesday will likely not be as hot.

Rain & Storm Chances - Madison
Rain & Storm Chances - Madison(WMTV NBC15)

The best chance of rain and storms this week will be come Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This is when a cold front will swing through the area. Wednesday morning will likely be soggy with widespread rain and a few storms. The rain will taper off from west to east across the area. Cooler and less humid air will follow the front. Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will only be in the 70s.

Widespread rainfall totals will range from around 0.25″ to 0.75″. The higher rainfall totals will likely be recorded across the northern half of the area. Places north of Madison towards central Wisconsin could see over an inch of rain. Rainfall totals from Madison and points south towards the WI-IL state line will likely be between 0.25-0.50″. More rain and storms will be possible Friday through next weekend.

Rainfall Potential - Monday - Wednesday
Rainfall Potential - Monday - Wednesday(WMTV NBC15)

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